Abstract

Purpose: This study evaluates the impact of China’s Supply Chain Innovation and Application pilot policy on urban trade resilience in the context of global uncertainties and U.S. tariff shocks. Research design, data and methodology: Using a difference-in-differences (DID) model and panel data from 285 Chinese prefecture-level cities (2012–2022), we examine the policy’s net effect on trade resilience, measured by resistance, recovery, and transformation capacities. Results: (1) The supply chain innovation and application pilot policy significantly enhances the trade resilience of pilot cities, a conclusion that remains robust after undergoing a series of robustness tests, including altering the sample period, applying propensity score matching, and adding fixed effects. (2) Mechanism analysis indicates that the pilot policy improves urban trade resilience by enhancing industrial synergy, fostering new quality productive forces, and optimizing the business environment. (3) The policy’s effect on improving urban trade resilience varies across cities, showing more pronounced positive impacts in cities with digital economy policies, cities with stronger intellectual property protection, and non-resource-based cities. Conclusions: The study recommends expanding the pilot program, building multi-stakeholder empowerment mechanisms, and implementing regionally tailored policies to strengthen urban trade resilience. These insights offer practical guidance for enhancing supply chain innovation and trade sustainability in China and similar contexts.