Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the relationship between fertility rate and economic growth in developing countries. It explores the inverse J-shaped relationship between total fertility rates and GDP per capita and the U-shaped relationship between total fertility rates and female labor force participation. Methodology: The study utilizes panel data from 117 developing countries from 2000 to 2022. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is employed to derive empirical results. Result: The empirical results support the inverse-J-shaped and U-shaped relationships. The findings suggest that a fertility rebound could be possible if income levels and female labor force participation are sufficiently high. Furthermore, we have identified the GDP per capita threshold that marks the turning point in fertility trends within developing countries. Conclusion: Policymakers can use this information to tackle the issue of declining fertility rates. The observed inverse-J-shaped and U-shaped relationships suggest that economic growth alone may not be adequate to sustain fertility rates. Consequently, strategies aimed at raising income levels become crucial. This can be achieved through targeted investments in women's education and training, which enhance job prospects and increase income levels, thereby contributing to a sustainable fertility rate.