Abstract

This study assessed changes in the Species Protection Index (SPI) for reptiles in the Republic of Korea under climate change. We integrated nationwide survey data to build species distribution models (SDM) for 18 reptile species and assessed their potential habitats under current and future climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The SDM performed well, with a mean area under the curve of 0.965 (range 0.869-0.999). By overlaying the predicted potential habitats with protected areas, we calculated Species Protection Scores for individual species and a taxon-level SPI for reptiles. The current SPI was 26.74 when all species were included, and 28.16 when ecosystem-disturbing (invasive) species were excluded. When the Species Conservation Target was adjusted to reflect the Republic of Korea context, these increased to 36.62 and 38.53, respectively. Under both future scenarios, SPI values declined through the mid-century (~2050) and then increased again in the late century (2060-2090). Ecosystem-disturbing (invasive) species initially exhibited lower SPI values but tended to overtake non-invasive species in the long term, underscoring the need to manage their incursions within protected areas. Overall, the findings support designating additional climate-informed protected areas alongside national and global 30% expansion targets.